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Chattanooga: It’s the economy.. again

By: Matt Wilson
(Contact)

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Bruce Oppenheimer

The economy and jobs are the issues at the front of most Tennesseans’ minds, a statewide poll of voters shows, but other issues may factor into how they cast their ballots for president.

Poll respondent Robert Just, 55, of Oak Ridge, said his top issue is the economy.

He’s voting for U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., because “I don’t see any way to fund” U.S. Sen. Barack Obama’s economic proposals. The plan by Sen. Obama, D-Ill., would increase the capital gains tax and dividend taxes for families with incomes above $250,000 and would hurt business, he said.

Arthur Howtow, 59, of Hixson, said the economy — especially in regard to gas prices — is the top issue right now. Sen. Obama’s proposals to cut taxes for lower-income Americans would help the poor, Mr. Howtow said. Health care and education are important issues as well, he said.

But Mr. Howtow plans to vote for Sen. Obama, he said, in part because the senator is black.

“It would be good for this country to have a black president,” he said.

Mr. Howtow, who is white, said electing a black president would be an example of the United States overcoming racism.

More than half of the respondents in the Chattanooga Times Free Press poll identified the economy as the most important national issue, five times as many as named the runner-up issues — terrorism and national security.

That’s a marked difference from the Times Free Press’ 2004 and 2006 polls, in which respondents named the war on terrorism and the war in Iraq, respectively, as their top issues. In both of those polls, the economy was the No. 2 issue.

The Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. telephone survey of 625 registered likey Tennessee voters was conducted from Sept. 22 through Sept. 24 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The poll shows Sen. McCain leading in Tennessee by 16 points. A large majority of whites — 64 percent — backed Sen. McCain, who is white, while just 30 percent support Sen. Obama, who is black, according to the poll.

Black respondents back Sen. Obama, poll data shows. Ninety-one percent of black voters said they support him, while only 4 percent said they support Sen. McCain.

VOTER INFLUENCES

Brad Coker, managing director of the Washington, D.C.-based polling firm, said national polls show Sen. Obama with an edge over Sen. McCain when it comes voters’ perceptions on how the candidates will handle economic issues.

But in states that skew conservative, such as Tennessee, the candidates are basically tied when it comes to the economy, he said.

Mr. Coker said party loyalty or candidate personality may be the reasons some voters choose the candidate they do.

“Voters don’t necessarily vote on issues,” he said.

Indeed, the poll shows 89 percent of voters who identified themselves as Republican plan to vote for Sen. McCain and 78 percent of voters who identified themselves as Democrats intend to vote for Sen. Obama.

Bruce Oppenheimer, a political science professor at Vanderbilt University, agreed that political loyalties will play a big role in the election. Even then, issues that voters say are important are likely to have more bearing on how the candidates conduct their campaigns than how the voters cast their ballots, Dr. Oppenheimer said.

For instance, he said U.S. Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., a contender challenging President George W. Bush in 2004, could not campaign on the economy that year because it wasn’t as prevalent in voters’ minds as national security.

Another respondent to the Times Free Press survey said the economy is not the only issue that will influence voters’ selections this year.

“I feel like a lot of it has to do with morals,” said Susan Gray, 32, a poll respondent from Soddy-Daisy.

Ms. Gray, who said she plans to vote for Sen. McCain, said the economy is the most important issue facing the nation and ties into many other issues such as health care and energy prices. But she said Sen. McCain’s stance on abortion — he is anti-abortion — would play a part in how she votes.

The survey shows that 5 percent of respondents rank social and moral issues as the most important national issue.

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